College Football Saturday Week 3 & NFL Week 2 Survivor Picks

It's Week 3 of the College Football season and we have some great games on this Saturday including Lane Kiffin's return to Oxford as LSU takes on Ole Miss. Jake Novakovich has a Free Play article up right now & AJ Hoffman gave out a play on the Bettor Day Football Show earlier this week.

It's also Week 2 of the NFL, and if you survived last week (condolences if you took the Chargers), then you're in a great spot this week. Mackenzie Rivers and Dan Rivera have you covered for your week 2 Survivor pick.

College Football Free Play: Michigan State at Notre Dame

7:30 p.m. ET · Notre Dame Stadium · (Notre Dame −29.5)

Under 52.5  -115, Fanduel & Michigan State team total UNDER 10.5  -128, Fanduel

Picture South Bend at 7:30 on Saturday night. The forecast calls for rain most of the day, three-quarters of an inch to an inch of it, with more storms once the game kicks off. That's the stage Michigan State walks onto, and it's about the worst one it could draw.

The Spartans have scored 30 and 35, but both came at home against Toledo and Eastern Michigan. Now they face a Notre Dame defense that has allowed 13 points all season — Wisconsin managed 284 yards against it, Rice managed 128.

In the rain, I expect both teams to do the same thing: hand it off. Michigan State already leans that way (258 rushing yards against Eastern Michigan), and Notre Dame has no reason to throw with a lead on a wet night. Every run keeps the clock moving, and every minute off the clock is a possession neither offense gets back. The wind is calm, so this isn't a classic weather game — the rain just tilts everything toward the ground.

That's the story of the Team Total, and that's the play I like. Getting to 11 means Michigan State strings together two real drives on a wet field against this defense. I don't think it gets there.

History: from 2023 through last season, Notre Dame was a favorite of 21 or more 17 times under Marcus Freeman and held 11 of those opponents to 10 points or fewer — 10 of 14 at home.

The risk: the same history block that makes the team total also guts the full-game under. Freeman's Irish averaged about 44 points in those 17 spots, and the totals went over 11 times against six unders. Notre Dame has already hung 41 and 52.

Read Jakes FULL College Football Free Play Article

🐎 #16 SMU AT #23 LOUISVILLE

(From the Bettor Day Football Show)

Fezzik: "People I respect have made a case for Louisville. I like SMU early in the game. If I had to bet one bet here, I think I'd bet SMU FIRST QUARTER."

AJ: "I downgraded Louisville off their performance against Ole Miss. I thought they'd be more closely matched talent-wise and they weren't — they looked behind the times on the coaching. I soured on them in week one.

Whereas SMU is a team I'm starting to believe might be the second best team in the ACC behind Miami. SMU up arrow, Louisville down arrow. We're getting a fair price. I like the Ponies."

CFB SuperContest Card

(A bounce back 5-2 in Week 2, now 7-7 overall)

Follow the Bettor Day entry all season

NFL SURVIVOR WEEK 2

📋 WEEK 1 RECAP: 6 OF 8 SURVIVED

What Happened to the Chargers

Dan: "They were not ready. They just didn't look good. Maybe the Cardinals are better than we thought, maybe they were just more prepared. They struggled to block up front, struggled to move the ball in the running game. The defense largely kept them in it, but when your offense does nothing all game it's just not going to happen.

Once Ladd McConkey got hurt, their offense really fell off a cliff."

Mackenzie's regret: "The only thing I might have suggested differently is putting THREE on the Steelers. The more you talked me into it... that was nip and tuck even with Cooper Rush. The pick six really turned it around."

(And the one they never mentioned: Jim Harbaugh falls to 6-1 straight up and ATS in week one.)

On the Jaguars pick: "I turned it on three minutes in, Deshaun Watson threw the ugliest pick, and I said yeah — we'll be fine."

⭐ THE OFFICIAL PICK: TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (2 entries)

Bucs -8.5 vs Cleveland

1. It's Now or Never

Dan: "The Bucs do not have another out. I can't really find a strong argument for them elsewhere — maybe week six versus the Steelers, but up and down you're not Survivor-level confident. A lot of these games are closer to 50-50, maybe 60-40 territory."

2. Week One Was a Turnover Game, Not a Performance

"If you were backing the Bucs +3.5, that was infuriating to watch. The Bengals offense really didn't do anything all game. It was the Bucs turnovers that killed them — straight fumbles. You're never going to win a game like that.

But the Bucs looked okay. Solid on offense, solid on defense. It was just the turnovers. Baker was doing too much and it wasn't working. And the Bengals defense looked a lot better than what we remember from last year."

3. ✈️ THE CLEVELAND TRAVEL DETAIL

Mackenzie: "They're not staying in Florida. It's not uncommon when you have two road games far from home to do a little mini road training camp and stay in the area. But Todd Monken says it's not that far of a trip — 'it's not like we're going to the West Coast.'

They're going back to Cleveland and then back to Florida. That's four plane trips in short order."

4. 📊 THE TODD BOWLES SPLIT

5. The Motivation Question

Dan: "Deshaun Watson is going to play, as I heard, even though nobody wants him to. He's just awful. Do you really think the Browns are max motivated with Watson in the game? I think they're done. The fans are fully done."

Mackenzie: "A lot of maybe secret Shedeur Sanders backers may just not have the same gumption and stick-to-itiveness coming into this game.

Nothing from the Buccaneers dissuades me from thinking they're a middling team. And the Browns did plenty to convince me they're a bad team."

⭐ THE OTHER ENTRIES

🦅 EAGLES -7 AT TENNESSEE (2 entries)

The Concern Is Real

Dan: "I'm very concerned with holding the Eagles. That offensive line last week was not very good. Landon Dickerson went to IR — and he was terrible last week because he WAS terrible. We know this team falls apart without Lane Johnson. We know Jalen Hurts is not the greatest throwing quarterback.

But Vic Fangio's defense is awesome. So let's say the Eagles offense struggles again — do we truly trust the Titans to do anything? I don't."

On the Titans

"Yes, they're that bad — but that's confirmation bias by me. I was not a big fan of Cam Ward coming out, and I absolutely despise the organization he went to. No head coach. No GM. A terrible owner. They don't draft well.

Now people are saying Cam Ward's not very good. Who would have thought? You need to build a real team around him.

That was a phony final score last week — the Jets probably should have put up more points. I don't know what the Titans do well. They are on the Dolphins level bad. They are on the Browns level bad."

📉 THE LOW-VARIANCE ARGUMENT

Mackenzie: "Let's say they have five three-and-outs like last week. Okay — they still scored 24 points against a better defense WITH five three-and-outs.

They're kind of low variance, because we're not expecting the offense to carry the day. They're a talented team that's going to lean on you until they get the better of you by the end.

And the market isn't impressed by their offense either — this total dropped from 41.5 to 39.5. That lends itself to lower variance too.

I like using them here. It's a little off-meta from what a lot of people will do if they're picking the 49ers and the bigger favorites."

🦃 The Thanksgiving Trade-Off

Both are fine spending them now rather than saving for Eagles at Cowboys on Thanksgiving.

Dan: "It's just one of those probably 50-50 games. I'm not thrilled with them. Maybe Dallas isn't as good — but I could see the Eagles losing that game."

Mackenzie: "At Dallas, I don't think ANY team in the league would be favored by much. And I'm not sure it was all Dallas that made week one such a disappointment for Cowboys fans."

🐈‍⬛ THE SHARP ALTERNATIVE: CAROLINA PANTHERS (1 entry)

Dan's Pitch — With a Disclaimer

"I'm not thrilled saying this out loud. Bryce Young and the Carolina Panthers.

They have two Survivor-esque games: this week at Atlanta, and week three at Cleveland — and I could see them losing that one with Shedeur Sanders probably finally coming in. So it's kind of now or never.

The Panthers moved the ball on the bad Bears defense. That Falcons defense is probably a little better than the Bears defense — but that's not really saying much. And it looked a lot better last week because the Steelers offense was that pedestrian.

This would be a big edge for us because they're probably not in that top 18 or 20 range — they're probably closer to 24 or 25 for most of the year. If you need to use a gross team, this wouldn't be a bad time."

🎯 Mackenzie's Endorsement

"Let's get a little messy. I like the Panthers here because they're so off-meta.

If it's a complete turmoil week — a lot of favorites came in last week — and there's a bunch of upsets where the market gets too sure of itself and some of these teams bounce back like 0-1 teams tend to do, maybe the Panthers being on that plane of glass will do us well.

They just put up 37 points on the Bears. They put up 31 the last time out against the Rams. Those are two playoff teams. The Falcons are not that. If the Panthers put up 30, they have a 99.9% chance to win.

Razor sharp. I think it's the Panthers."

⚠️ BUYER BEWARE: THE AUSTRALIA TEAMS

🇦🇺 The 49ers (-13.5 vs Miami)

Both took them off the board.

Dan: "This is the earliest you and I have ever been able to discuss the 49ers. Do I think they lose? Probably not. Do I think there's maybe a little jet lag, maybe they're lackadaisical in the first half and it gets sweatier than we want? Maybe."

Mackenzie: "Look at Kyle Shanahan on a per-month basis: it's flat to start the year and then up and to the left. December is his best winning percentage at 63%. September is only 55% — and that's with very good teams.

There's zero sample size coming back from Australia. Also — beating the Super Bowl favorites. There's always a sense of 'okay, we've made it.' Maybe you take your foot off the gas a little.

And I don't love the 49ers at home generally. It's never been a great home field advantage, the wine and cheese crowd in Northern California."

✅ THE PLAN: KICK THE CAN

Dan: "You'd have a bye before the Raiders. And I don't think the Raiders are getting much better — they beat the crappy Dolphins, but I just think they're not as bad as the Dolphins. Week six through nine somewhere will be totally fine."

🐏 The Rams (-7 vs Giants)

Dan: "Pass — because the Packers go to the Rams on Thanksgiving week, and that's probably the game we use them. They have a bye before it, they play a game, then the Wednesday game, and it counts for us."

Mackenzie's travel concern: "Two fifteen-hour plane flights within a 45-hour period, which seems insane. I don't know if there's much sample size in any sport for that, especially something as physical as football.

If both the Rams and 49ers have terrible showings and don't cover by 14 points, I don't think we should be shocked. We've seen trips back from Europe — but not exactly this."

📊 The Trend That Cuts the Other Way

"Being a favorite versus a team that won last week as a dog, when you lost as a favorite last week: 15-2 straight up in week two. A lot of these teams bounce back.

But then again — they were 0-2 last year. I think they were 1-3 and they were Super Bowl favorites by the end of the year. They know how much of a marathon it is. They're not going to be too disillusioned if they lose this game. And I think they could."

🎯 The Line Read

Mackenzie: "I predicted on the show with Scott on Monday that it would drop from 7.5 to 7. That's a point and a half move off the 8.5 look-ahead. And I'm not sure there isn't more Giants money coming. I'm not sure it isn't deserving.

The Giants, EPA-wise, had one of their better games in like a decade. They scored 28 on very low possessions — only three possessions in the second half. That might go to their advantage here: if the Rams offense gets going but you only give them eight possessions, you hold them to a couple of field goals and you're in this game late."

📉 THE TREND OF THE WEEK: ROAD TEAMS OFF OVERTIME

⏭️ And Why They're Passing on Baltimore Anyway

Dan: "The Ravens dominated my crappy Colts. Chris Ballard still can't draft defense — you still can't cover, you still don't have a pass rush.

But Zay Flowers was probably going to drop 200 yards before he pulled his hamstring — unknown if he plays. And Lane is out for the next four weeks. That's two receivers.

Derrick Henry and company should be fine, but let's kick this can down the road."

On the Saints: "I don't know what happened. I was watching that first half — they looked awful. Then the second half they just remembered how to play football. I still don't know if that was actually a good game for them or them just playing the line. I need more sample size."

🚫 The Others They Scanned

🦃 THANKSGIVING PLANNING (it's closer than you think)

The slate that counts: Packers at Rams · Bears at Lions · Eagles at Cowboys — plus the Black Friday game, Broncos at Steelers.

Dan on Black Friday: "I don't want to use the Broncos there unless we really have to. It's in Pittsburgh — even if they're three points better, that's a Broncos-by-one type line. And I'm not sure they ARE three points better after week one. Because Bo Nix is Bo Nix."

Mackenzie: "Gun to my head, I wouldn't even blink — the Rams would be the pick. The Bears look monstrous, monsters of the Midway. And the Cowboys might be good enough to make that Eagles game a real game."

The LaFleur Watch

"Matt LaFleur lost six games in a row. I looked it up — he had a 66% winning percentage, and only Nick Sirianni and Jim Harbaugh and a couple of others have a better one. But you lose six straight and there's a little heat coming on your seat.

Would love it if they completely implode for Survivor purposes. Nothing against the guy personally. They haven't won a game since Micah Parsons went down, and they'd be close to six-point underdogs going to the Rams."

📋 WEEK 2 SUMMARY

🔀 The Diversification Note

Dan: "If we use the Jaguars in one entry, we could use the Panthers in the other — that would offset it. That gives us at least one Bucs and one other team alongside the Jags and Steelers to help diversify the risk."

And for Splash contest players: "It's now or never for the Panthers, and you're going to use TWENTY-FOUR total selections. In the double weeks it's two teams for the whole week."

📅 Coming Up

Tomorrow

• NFL Prop Shop Week 2 article from Brandon Kravitz.

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