Arch Madness Unders
IYKYK. Rather than a free play today, it's more like a free philosophy.
You've read the headlines, seen the tweets, listened to the pods. Arch Madness Unders. Some of you may be wondering WTF? Arch Madness is the nickname for the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament played every year in St Louis. This tournament has been an UNDER cash cow for years.
This season, MVC Tourney games are off to a 3-0 start to the UNDER. Last season, UNDERS went 10-1. The binomial probability of going 13-1 randomly in a 14 game subset? 0.1%. This isn't happening by chance.
Why It's Working
Groups are betting the overs. The metrics say over. But they're not accounting for:
- Neutral site games - unfamiliar site lines
- The specific arena/rims in St. Louis
- How Arch Madness just delivers under after under after under
Since the start of the 2021 season (2022 tournament) Arch Madness UNDERS are 33-12.
Can we keep betting it?
Yes and No. If these betting groups continue to pound these overs, then by all means, continue to play under the adjusted numbers. However, as these games keep going under, the market could adjust, suppressing the number to a point where the value is gone. In that case, there may be other ways to bet the same theme of UNDER.
Looking at the first halves of these games, in the 3 games this year there have been an average of 64.6 points scored. In the 10-1 under run last year, there was an average of 63.5 points scored in the first half. Going back to the start of 2021 (the 2022 tournament) MVC first halves are averaging 64.5 pints. If the full game totals become suppressed, there could still be value in the 1st half unders depending on the number.
Today's games
Drake vs Belmont - OPEN 157.5 - CURRENTLY 152.5
UIC vs Murray State - OPEN 155 - CURRENTLY 147.5
Valpo vs Bradley - OPEN 141.5 - CURRENTLY 133.5
Northern Iowa vs Illinois State - OPEN 125.5 - CURRENTLY 124.5
As you can see, every opener has been hit down. Let's look a the first halves
Drake vs Belmont - 72.5
UIC vs Murray State - 69.5
Valpo vs Bradley - 63
Northern Iowa vs Illinois State - 58
The better plays may be the 1st half unders for today, but continue to monitor the market as these totals could get bet up.
Th theme remains the same, but the betting approach may have to shift. Arch Madness UNDERS.