> ## Content Index > Fetch the complete content index at: https://www.bettorday.com/llms.txt > Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further. # Another year of Chalk? - URL: https://www.bettorday.com/another-year-of-chalk/ - Published: 2025-08-08T20:54:41.000Z - Updated: 2025-08-14T20:49:16.000Z - Description: The following is a FREE article example of the type of information that will be found in the Research tab exclusively for members. - Author: Scott Seidenberg - Tags: Research, #u-color-bg-light, NFL Or will it be the revenge of the Dogs? ## **2024 was a historic year for NFL favorites** 1. Favorites went **149-131-5 ATS last year (53.2%)**, the **third-best mark for any season** since 1989. 1. The only stronger seasons were: 1. 1990: 53.5% 1. 2005: 57.8% 2. From **Week 5 onward, favorites covered at a 55.6% clip**, also the third-best post–Week 4 run in the 36-year sample. 1. Although last year was extreme, in general we have seen dogs do better early. Historically (since 1989), dogs have done better early: 1. **Weeks 1–4**: Favorites are just **47.3% ATS** 1. **Week 5 and beyond**: Favorites improve to **49.3% ATS** --- ## **Regression coming?** Here’s how the market has responded in years following big favorite ATS seasons: | Season | ATS Win % | Following Year | ATS Win % | Change | | ------ | --------- | -------------- | --------- | ---------- | | 1990 | 53.5% | 1991 | 51.4% | –2.1% | | 2005 | 57.8% | 2006 | **44.6%** | **–13.2%** | | 2024 | 53.2% | 2025 | ??? | ??? | After the **record-setting 2005**, the market didn't just cool off — it swung hard. **Favorites covered just 44.6% in 2006**, which ranks as the **4th worst season** for favorites in the entire 36-year sample.By contrast, the year after 1990 (1991) held relatively steady at 51.4%, much closer to historical averages. **The 2-Year View: Only One Period Better**. Two years ago, we also saw a strong year for favorites, with favorites landing with a record of **52.4% in 2023**. **2023-2024 was the only two-year period in our database was betting favorites was profitable in back-to-back years.** The combined ATS record of **2023 and 2024** — 289-258-17 (52.8%) — ranks as the **second-best two-year stretch for favorites** since 1989\. The only better run? - **2004–2005**: 271-238-17 (53.2%) And what came after that peak? Again — 2006 — **just 44.6% ATS**, landing in the **bottom 15th percentile** of all seasons. --- ## **What does the Regression Tells Us?** We ran a simple regression to test whether past-year ATS performance can help forecast the following season. While the R-squared was low, **the direction of the coefficients did suggest potential mean reversion**. The p-value on prior-year ATS was **0.21**, meaning there’s a **79% chance the pattern isn’t random** — a suggestive signal, even if it falls short of academic significance..Importantly, these are not single-game observations. Each season’s ATS % reflects **\~270 games**, which means the swings we’re seeing — especially in years like 2005, 2006, and 2024 — are **real and statistically meaningful**. The regression model likely **understates** the signal by treating each year as a single datapoint rather than a large-sample summary.Here are the correlation between previous Year ATS W%/Margin and the given year's ATS W% and Margin. **There was a negative 14.3% correlation between last year's ATS margin and the next year's ATS margin.** And here is the full data of ATS W%, ATS margin, Previous Year ATSW% & Margin, and the 2-Previous Year ATSW% & Margin | Year | games | ATSm | ATS Win % | prev. yr ATS \~ | prev yr:ATS Win% | prev 2y: ATSm | prev 2y:ATSW% | | ---- | ----- | ------ | --------- | --------------- | ---------------- | ------------- | ------------- | | 2024 | 285 | 1.15 | 53.20% | 0.85 | 52.40% | 0.05 | 48.35% | | 2023 | 279 | 0.85 | 52.40% | \-0.73 | 44.40% | \-0.67 | 45.96% | | 2022 | 285 | \-0.73 | 44.40% | \-0.6 | 47.50% | \-1.05 | 45.70% | | 2021 | 282 | \-0.6 | 47.50% | \-1.53 | 43.80% | \-0.83 | 45.80% | | 2020 | 270 | \-1.53 | 43.80% | \-0.12 | 47.90% | \-0.36 | 46.21% | | 2019 | 267 | \-0.12 | 47.90% | \-0.6 | 44.60% | \-0.28 | 48.35% | | 2018 | 267 | \-0.6 | 44.60% | 0.04 | 52.10% | 0.04 | 52.33% | | 2017 | 268 | 0.04 | 52.10% | 0.04 | 52.50% | \-0.02 | 49.22% | | 2016 | 267 | 0.04 | 52.50% | \-0.08 | 45.90% | \-0.02 | 47.30% | | 2015 | 267 | \-0.08 | 45.90% | 0.04 | 48.70% | 0.46 | 50.67% | | 2014 | 267 | 0.04 | 48.70% | 0.87 | 52.70% | 0.75 | 50.58% | | 2013 | 267 | 0.87 | 52.70% | 0.62 | 48.50% | 0.55 | 49.03% | | 2012 | 267 | 0.62 | 48.50% | 0.47 | 49.60% | 0.20 | 49.32% | | 2011 | 263 | 0.47 | 49.60% | \-0.07 | 49.00% | 0.31 | 49.32% | | 2010 | 264 | \-0.07 | 49.00% | 0.71 | 49.60% | 0.62 | 48.91% | | 2009 | 257 | 0.71 | 49.60% | 0.52 | 48.20% | 0.65 | 50.20% | | 2008 | 254 | 0.52 | 48.20% | 0.78 | 52.20% | \-0.50 | 48.32% | | 2007 | 261 | 0.78 | 52.20% | \-1.77 | 44.60% | 0.31 | 51.17% | | 2006 | 264 | \-1.77 | 44.60% | 2.37 | 57.80% | 1.16 | 53.24% | | 2005 | 266 | 2.37 | 57.80% | \-0.08 | 48.60% | 0.74 | 50.10% | | 2004 | 260 | \-0.08 | 48.60% | 1.54 | 51.60% | 0.43 | 47.86% | | 2003 | 265 | 1.54 | 51.60% | \-0.71 | 44.10% | \-0.48 | 45.94% | | 2002 | 260 | \-0.71 | 44.10% | \-0.25 | 47.80% | \-0.09 | 47.75% | | 2001 | 257 | \-0.25 | 47.80% | 0.07 | 47.70% | \-0.11 | 47.11% | | 2000 | 242 | 0.07 | 47.70% | \-0.29 | 46.50% | 0.50 | 49.67% | | 1999 | 243 | \-0.29 | 46.50% | 1.3 | 52.90% | 0.13 | 49.10% | | 1998 | 238 | 1.3 | 52.90% | \-1.05 | 45.20% | \-0.62 | 47.02% | | 1997 | 234 | \-1.05 | 45.20% | \-0.18 | 48.70% | \-0.74 | 47.62% | | 1996 | 234 | \-0.18 | 48.70% | \-1.29 | 46.50% | \-1.17 | 46.14% | | 1995 | 236 | \-1.29 | 46.50% | \-1.05 | 45.70% | \-1.21 | 45.41% | | 1994 | 218 | \-1.05 | 45.70% | \-1.37 | 45.10% | \-1.03 | 47.22% | | 1993 | 222 | \-1.37 | 45.10% | \-0.69 | 49.30% | 0.14 | 50.35% | | 1992 | 219 | \-0.69 | 49.30% | 0.96 | 51.40% | 1.12 | 52.45% | | 1991 | 222 | 0.96 | 51.40% | 1.29 | 53.50% | 0.76 | 50.58% | | 1990 | 218 | 1.29 | 53.50% | 0.23 | 47.70% | | | | 1989 | 220 | 0.23 | 47.70% | | | | | --- **In summation**, the 2024 NFL season marked one of the most profitable years for favorites in recent history, capping a rare two-year stretch of chalk dominance. However, historical trends and early regression analysis suggest that this run is unlikely to sustain. Past data shows that years following big favorite performances — especially extreme ones like 2005 — tend to experience significant market corrections. With early-season underdog success and a modest negative correlation pointing toward mean reversion, bettors should prepare for a potential swing back toward more balanced results or even a return to underdog value in 2025.