Or will it be the revenge of the Dogs?
2024 was a historic year for NFL favorites
- Favorites went 149-131-5 ATS last year (53.2%), the third-best mark for any season since 1989.
- The only stronger seasons were:
- 1990: 53.5%
- 2005: 57.8%
- From Week 5 onward, favorites covered at a 55.6% clip, also the third-best post–Week 4 run in the 36-year sample.
- Although last year was extreme, in general we have seen dogs do better early. Historically (since 1989), dogs have done better early:
- Weeks 1–4: Favorites are just 47.3% ATS
- Week 5 and beyond: Favorites improve to 49.3% ATS
Regression coming?
Here’s how the market has responded in years following big favorite ATS seasons:
Season | ATS Win % | Following Year | ATS Win % | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1990 | 53.5% | 1991 | 51.4% | –2.1% |
2005 | 57.8% | 2006 | 44.6% | –13.2% |
2024 | 53.2% | 2025 | ??? | ??? |
After the record-setting 2005, the market didn't just cool off — it swung hard. Favorites covered just 44.6% in 2006, which ranks as the 4th worst season for favorites in the entire 36-year sample.By contrast, the year after 1990 (1991) held relatively steady at 51.4%, much closer to historical averages.
The 2-Year View: Only One Period Better.
Two years ago, we also saw a strong year for favorites, with favorites landing with a record of 52.4% in 2023. 2023-2024 was the only two-year period in our database was betting favorites was profitable in back-to-back years. The combined ATS record of 2023 and 2024 — 289-258-17 (52.8%) — ranks as the second-best two-year stretch for favorites since 1989. The only better run?
- 2004–2005: 271-238-17 (53.2%)
And what came after that peak? Again — 2006 — just 44.6% ATS, landing in the bottom 15th percentile of all seasons.
What does the Regression Tells Us?
We ran a simple regression to test whether past-year ATS performance can help forecast the following season. While the R-squared was low, the direction of the coefficients did suggest potential mean reversion. The p-value on prior-year ATS was 0.21, meaning there’s a 79% chance the pattern isn’t random — a suggestive signal, even if it falls short of academic significance..Importantly, these are not single-game observations. Each season’s ATS % reflects ~270 games, which means the swings we’re seeing — especially in years like 2005, 2006, and 2024 — are real and statistically meaningful. The regression model likely understates the signal by treating each year as a single datapoint rather than a large-sample summary.Here are the correlation between previous Year ATS W%/Margin and the given year's ATS W% and Margin. There was a negative 14.3% correlation between last year's ATS margin and the next year's ATS margin.
And here is the full data of ATS W%, ATS margin, Previous Year ATSW% & Margin, and the 2-Previous Year ATSW% & Margin
Year | games | ATSm | ATS Win % | prev. yr ATS ~ | prev yr:ATS Win% | prev 2y: ATSm | prev 2y:ATSW% |
2024 | 285 | 1.15 | 53.20% | 0.85 | 52.40% | 0.05 | 48.35% |
2023 | 279 | 0.85 | 52.40% | -0.73 | 44.40% | -0.67 | 45.96% |
2022 | 285 | -0.73 | 44.40% | -0.6 | 47.50% | -1.05 | 45.70% |
2021 | 282 | -0.6 | 47.50% | -1.53 | 43.80% | -0.83 | 45.80% |
2020 | 270 | -1.53 | 43.80% | -0.12 | 47.90% | -0.36 | 46.21% |
2019 | 267 | -0.12 | 47.90% | -0.6 | 44.60% | -0.28 | 48.35% |
2018 | 267 | -0.6 | 44.60% | 0.04 | 52.10% | 0.04 | 52.33% |
2017 | 268 | 0.04 | 52.10% | 0.04 | 52.50% | -0.02 | 49.22% |
2016 | 267 | 0.04 | 52.50% | -0.08 | 45.90% | -0.02 | 47.30% |
2015 | 267 | -0.08 | 45.90% | 0.04 | 48.70% | 0.46 | 50.67% |
2014 | 267 | 0.04 | 48.70% | 0.87 | 52.70% | 0.75 | 50.58% |
2013 | 267 | 0.87 | 52.70% | 0.62 | 48.50% | 0.55 | 49.03% |
2012 | 267 | 0.62 | 48.50% | 0.47 | 49.60% | 0.20 | 49.32% |
2011 | 263 | 0.47 | 49.60% | -0.07 | 49.00% | 0.31 | 49.32% |
2010 | 264 | -0.07 | 49.00% | 0.71 | 49.60% | 0.62 | 48.91% |
2009 | 257 | 0.71 | 49.60% | 0.52 | 48.20% | 0.65 | 50.20% |
2008 | 254 | 0.52 | 48.20% | 0.78 | 52.20% | -0.50 | 48.32% |
2007 | 261 | 0.78 | 52.20% | -1.77 | 44.60% | 0.31 | 51.17% |
2006 | 264 | -1.77 | 44.60% | 2.37 | 57.80% | 1.16 | 53.24% |
2005 | 266 | 2.37 | 57.80% | -0.08 | 48.60% | 0.74 | 50.10% |
2004 | 260 | -0.08 | 48.60% | 1.54 | 51.60% | 0.43 | 47.86% |
2003 | 265 | 1.54 | 51.60% | -0.71 | 44.10% | -0.48 | 45.94% |
2002 | 260 | -0.71 | 44.10% | -0.25 | 47.80% | -0.09 | 47.75% |
2001 | 257 | -0.25 | 47.80% | 0.07 | 47.70% | -0.11 | 47.11% |
2000 | 242 | 0.07 | 47.70% | -0.29 | 46.50% | 0.50 | 49.67% |
1999 | 243 | -0.29 | 46.50% | 1.3 | 52.90% | 0.13 | 49.10% |
1998 | 238 | 1.3 | 52.90% | -1.05 | 45.20% | -0.62 | 47.02% |
1997 | 234 | -1.05 | 45.20% | -0.18 | 48.70% | -0.74 | 47.62% |
1996 | 234 | -0.18 | 48.70% | -1.29 | 46.50% | -1.17 | 46.14% |
1995 | 236 | -1.29 | 46.50% | -1.05 | 45.70% | -1.21 | 45.41% |
1994 | 218 | -1.05 | 45.70% | -1.37 | 45.10% | -1.03 | 47.22% |
1993 | 222 | -1.37 | 45.10% | -0.69 | 49.30% | 0.14 | 50.35% |
1992 | 219 | -0.69 | 49.30% | 0.96 | 51.40% | 1.12 | 52.45% |
1991 | 222 | 0.96 | 51.40% | 1.29 | 53.50% | 0.76 | 50.58% |
1990 | 218 | 1.29 | 53.50% | 0.23 | 47.70% | ||
1989 | 220 | 0.23 | 47.70% |
In summation, the 2024 NFL season marked one of the most profitable years for favorites in recent history, capping a rare two-year stretch of chalk dominance. However, historical trends and early regression analysis suggest that this run is unlikely to sustain. Past data shows that years following big favorite performances — especially extreme ones like 2005 — tend to experience significant market corrections. With early-season underdog success and a modest negative correlation pointing toward mean reversion, bettors should prepare for a potential swing back toward more balanced results or even a return to underdog value in 2025.